There have been many conspiracy theories floating around about Crooks not being the actual shooter, and there have been eyewitness accounts of other shooters. Some have involved the water tower, some have involved shooters from inside the buildings.
Some of the witnesses and analysis sounded FAR from credible, so I was skeptical. I decided to see if any of those theories merited further investigation, or whether they could possibly be eliminated.
The photo that inspired me to perform this analysis was this one by Doug Mills of the NYT.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/14/us/politics/photo-path-trump-assassination.html
My thought was that based on the angle of this bullet path, we should be able to trace its path backwards to see where it may have originated. This would not prove there were NOT multiple shooters, but it proves there was at least ONE shooter at the other end of this trajectory (assuming this photo is not fake, that it is relatively level to the horizon, and that the camera pointing direction is relatively close to perpendicular to the bullet trajectory both vertically and horizontally).
While this analysis is simple high-school level geometry and trigonometry, I will mention that my background includes being a software engineer, coder, and software project manager for a full rewrite of a series of photogrammetry/mensuration math models that became the core for tools used throughout the intelligence community. Note however, that the only tangible thing that experience lends to this analysis is a mindset accustomed to chaining angular calculations within a photo and across multiple photos, which comes from watching professional photogrammetrists perform tasks like these, and much more complex ones, on a daily basis.
Disclaimer 1: I expect the biggest unknown in my calculations is the accuracy of relative ground elevations provided by https://www.freemaptools.com/elevation-finder.htm
Disclaimer 2: This analysis is presented in an effort to determine if I made a mistake and to provoke further accurate thought and analysis. It is very possible that I used bad values, or that I made a simple sign error. I invite any and all peer review of this analysis.
So, here’s the math...
First, I computed the elevation angle of this bullet path using this photo.
I used MS Paint to draw a horizontal line and measure its length in pixels, then I drew another line along the path of the bullet. Over the length of these lines we get 16 pixels of elevation rise (moving back toward the rifle) and 814 pixels of run. So, using the TOA rule (tangent of the angle = opposite side / adjacent side), the elevation angle can be computed.
Bullet’s elevation angle is approximately 1.13 degrees.
Next, I wanted to find out the height of the apex of the roof where the shot allegedly took place. I wanted to know where it was SUPPOSED to be before I ran the calculations to see if it did indeed seem to come from there. To get this height, I used this photo, along with some elevation data.
This is the building Crooks was on top of (taken from Google Street View). I added red lines to identify the apex point, then drew blue lines to measure the height of the door (in pixels) and the height to the apex. This was 90 and 200 pixels respectively. Since doors are a pretty standard 80 inches, the roof apex height can be estimated. Also note that the windows in this building are quite low. If a second shooter were inside this building, it seems it couldn’t be any higher than the horizontal blue line. Also, I added a blue line at the steps to establish an upper maximum of the height of the base of the building relative to ground level (about 25 inches).
Apex of the roof is between 14.81 feet and 17.03 feet; I used a best guess of 15.92 feet.
For the total elevation of the roof, I needed the ground elevation of the building. I used points on the ground at each end of this building. This elevation was obtained from https://www.freemaptools.com/elevation-finder.htm. The average elevation at the ground is approximately 1333.4 feet.
So adding the 15.92 roof height you get the roof apex elevation.
Elevation of roof apex is approximately 1349.32 feet (within 1344.81...1353.83)
Next, I needed the distance from the roof's apex to the stage. Here, I used Google Maps Satellite view and used their distance measuring tool from the approximate position of Trump (40.857030, -79.970930) to the roof apex. I took samples from near each end of the building to get minimum and maximum bounds.
Distance from Trump to roof apex is approximately 442.5 feet (within 430...455)
Now all that remains is to figure out the elevation of Trump’s head, and the rest is simple geometry and trigonometry.
Ground level at the stage was obtained from https://www.freemaptools.com/elevation-finder.htm using an average of elevation points around the stage area as shown here.
The average is 1337.35 (within 1336.2...1338.5). From photographs, there appear to be five steps leading up to the stage platform. Using the minimum (6.25”) and maximum (7 7/8”) standard step (riser heights) and using a minimum of 4 and a maximum of 6 steps, you get a potential range of the stage somewhere between 2.08 and 3.94 feet. So, the platform is approximately 3 feet above the ground. Trump’s height seemed a little hard to come by online. I used several sources for an average of 6.08 feet. Next you need to subtract off the distance from the top of Trump’s head to the path of the bullet. I estimated this at 7.25 inches (0.6 feet).
Adding all of this together, you get the elevation height of the bullet whizzing past Trump’s head.
Elevation of bullet at Trump’s head is approximately 1345.84 feet (within 1343.33...1348.35).
I found it interesting that the roof apex is only 5 feet higher than this. Those folks in the North bleachers were certainly right in the line of fire. I wouldn’t be surprised if the line of sight was between the heads of people on those bleachers.
All of this went into a spreadsheet:
I chose what I felt were liberal minimums and maximums to try and bound the possibilities. And the result is that the bullet would almost certainly have passed the roof apex somewhere between -2 feet below and not more than 12 feet above. Best guess value is a tad over 5 feet.
All of this is completely consistent with the shot coming from Crooks’ rifle.
This photo shows an orange box that is just eyeball estimated to stretch from about 2 feet below the roof apex to 12 feet above it.
This analysis suggests that the whizzing bullet:
• Did not come from the water tower (light blue line)
• Likely did not come from the windows in Crooks’ building (yellow line)
• Likely did not come from the roof of the building behind Crooks (dark red line)
This analysis suggests that the whizzing bullet is consistent with:
• The position of Crooks’ rifle (lighter red/orange line)
• The windows in the building behind Crooks and to his right (dark blue line)
• The roof of the building much further back (orange line in image below)
The building far back also matches the best guess trajectory data. However, the latest acoustic analysis does not line up with this location. Also, I believe other analysis has shown that the whizzing bullet photo is actually the bullet that struck Trump's ear (you likely aren't seeing the bullet itself, but rather the pulverized flesh trailing behind the bullet), and that it was the first shot fired, or at least one of the first three shots fired.
Here are the same sort of calculations for this far building's roof apex.
The whizzing bullet trajectory has a best guess height above this roof of 3.09 feet.
If I were an honest and thorough investigator, I’d be making sure I completely ruled out the windows behind Crooks and to his right as well as the roofs of buildings further back. The red diamond is where Crooks was located.
As noted earlier, the fact that the trajectory is consistent with Crooks' rifle does not rule out other bullets coming from other trajectories (other postulated shooters). I will note however, that the NYT posted their whizzing bullet photo quite quickly. If this were a giant conspiracy, and the NYT was in on it (with camera presets to capture that bullet effect), then they would have needed to do this math to ensure they didn’t capture a bullet from the water tower or some other inconsistent trajectory.
If you would like me to adjust some numbers and re-run the analysis, I’d be happy to do so. Just drop me a note. Freedom of speech has allowed many theories to be voiced and consequently analyzed. The sillier ones have been rationally disposed of, for those willing to look. There remain many troubling facts surrounding this case that need thorough investigation, and I’m glad to see all who are asking the right questions and who continue to run these to ground.
Update 1: I initially supposed that Mills' camera would have been on a tripod. Turns out it was not. So, the assumption of "level with the horizon" is more suspect. I added a full +/- 2 degrees error boundary on the bullet angle to see the magnitude of the effect. This would extend the orange box about 10 feet at the top and bottom, which would include both the lower windows and the roof of the building just behind Crooks and to his right.
Update 2: I find Dr. Chris Martenson's acoustic analysis to be very compelling. I am now convinced there were at least two weapons firing TOWARDS the stage. Give this a watch. https://x.com/chrismartenson/status/1814095819831902381
Update 3: Another acoustic analysis by Mike Adams identifies three separate shooter distances TOWARDS the stage. The ranges are about 450 feet (shots 1-5), about 740 feet (shot 6 - likely bolt action), and about 1400 feet (shot 7 - likely bolt action higher power cartridge). Adams believes shots 1-3 are a different weapon than shots 4-5 due to a very different sound, though the range is about the same. Likely 4 total weapons. It seems that shot 8 is the one that took out Crooks. Give this a watch. https://www.brighteon.com/a2ec2cff-0d92-4870-9629-e1fa9eb3fb09
Update 4: A comment or two about acoustic data. See updates 2 and 3 above for links to early, yet very, very compelling analysis. There were high quality microphones located at varied locations all over the venue -- from professional network news equipment to good quality cell phone mics. This data is not going away and is as unmistakable and as difficult to tamper with as fingerprint or DNA evidence. Acoustic data captures when a supersonic bullet passes the microphone (sharp snap sound) and then captures when the slower sound of the rifle cartridge explosion arrives (a duller boom sound). It is child's play to determine if the shot originated from "good guys" on the roofs behind the stage, or from a more distant threat location. It is also highly reliable to determine the rough distance to the shooter (regardless of what variety of supersonic bullet), and is extremely precise if you know the bullet type and approximate velocity. With enough microphones at enough different locations, the location of the shooters can be determined quite accurately by professional acoustic analysts using triangulation. You can be certain that professional investigators have done this already or will soon do this. The first big glaring question is: Will the public ever be told about this analysis? And the second big glaring question is: Do any serious investigative journalists exist in the mainstream who are even bringing this avenue of investigation to the public discussion right now? If not, why not? You simply cannot hope to hide actual truth like this in today's world of electronic technology. Feet must be held to the fire until this line of evidence is transparently analyzed and reported.
With the combination of these two early acoustic reports, I am now convinced there were at least 3, and probably 4 shooters. I don't think anyone who listens to these two reports would say this is an unreasonable conclusion. It would be unwise to nay-say this if you haven't taken the time to listen to both in their entirety. More may come to light. If anyone is aware of contrary acoustic analysis out there, I am completely open to my opinion being changed. So, my spit-balling, common-sense-driven thought processes lead me to the following two alternatives (based on an assumption of 4 shooters).
1. Such a conspiracy of 4 shooters would seem to be a professional operation. I find it extremely difficult to believe such a plan would have Crooks shooting first. The first three shots are evenly spaced, sound very professional, and would therefore come from someone close to Crooks (inside his building, or from the windows in the building just behind him and to his right, or even through a small hole in one of the buildings). Those shots then trigger Crooks and the other two shooters to fire. Shots 4 and 5 would be from Crooks in this alternative, and shots 6 and 7 from shooters further back.
2. Perhaps Crooks went off script and fired first. Perhaps he took those first 3 shots (or even 5 shots). This would have thrown the whole operation off. The other shooters would probably be delayed just enough that Trump had already begun to duck, thus their shots missed. Or perhaps Crooks had to remain completely ignorant of the existence of other shooters and they had no choice but to allow him to shoot first.
Update 5: One of the commenters in Mike Adams' video brought up the possibility that the snap booms from shots 6 and 7 could logically be nested. That is, snap 6 could be from a much longer range rifle such that snap 7 is associated with boom 6 and occurs prior to boom 7 which is associated with snap 6. I tried to compute the ranges for this scenario, however, this is pretty confusing due to different time scale values in Adams' video. If I deciphered that correctly, then we have Snap 6 at 9.935, Snap 7 at 10.235, Boom 6 at 10.295, and Boom 7 at 11.005. This results in a time of 0.06 seconds from snap 7 to boom 6, and 1.07 seconds from snap 6 to boom 7. These ranges would be in the ballpark of 120 feet and 1945 feet respectively. Perhaps 120 feet could be consistent with a counter-sniper returning fire on Crooks. The 1945 distance is about 650 yards. I find this interpretation unlikely, but there it is. Something else to try and confirm or eliminate. If I have time, I'll see if any buildings work out for 1400 feet and for 1945 feet. Also, for what it is worth, Dan Bongino (ex Secret Service agent) is very, very skeptical of more than one shooter, so just a reminder that caution continues to be merited for any conclusions.
Update 6: Dr. Martenson shared his audio files with Mike Adams so a more complete analysis was possible since these recordings are taken at different locations and some rough triangulation can now be performed. Adams is now confident there were 10 shots, with shot 9 being a pistol round fired from the stage area back toward Crooks by local law enforcement, and shot 10 being the SS counter sniper round that took out Crooks. The remaining 8 shots are all rifle shots traveling from the left towards the stage. Round 6 and maybe 7 have a different sound from the others (more muffled, with little or no echo off of building surfaces). These need further analysis and clarification. The largest looming question is why did the SS counter snipers fail to fire back after the first three shots. What is the typical response time to return fire if you already are aware of the shooter's location and you already have spotted and ranged his position, and your rifle is already pointed at the shooter? Is it reasonable that it would be 16 seconds after the first round before returning fire? The fact that the government seems to be stonewalling and providing almost no information to the public is not good. The fact that they claim to have no recording of the voice communications is extremely troubling. The fact that we know nothing about how many empty shell casings were on the roof is troubling (at most crime scenes they immediately mark the position of shell casings with little blue tent markers). The shell casings are tapered and would not be expected to roll all the way down the roof, they would most certainly roll in a circle until they came to rest against one of the roof ridge seams. The vacuum of information from the government is causing many more very bad theories to be aired, and it is forcing the crowd sourcing of the analysis with limited data. This paints the picture that the government desires this state of confusion. Martenson and Adams have clear biases, however they have been begging for more audio data from attendees all along, and have now gotten that. They have been transparent with their analysis and have been willing to change their opinions. Here is the link to Adams' analysis on 2024-Jul-23: https://www.brighteon.com/268b2dc3-e9f9-4089-95a8-184ad5a383ed
Update 7: Wray testifies 8 "cartridges" were found on the roof. Dr. Martenson has refined the picture further. Many of the mysteries are now explained in this acoustic analysis. Shots 1, 2, and 3 have a very different sound from 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. The podium microphone has an auto-adjust feature, so when it hears a very loud snap, it is saturated and so automatically turns down its sensitivity for a short interval of time. That is why the mic caught some snaps, but did not record the associated booms. Martenson is certainly a biased source as you can hear from his speculations, but his data analysis seems to truly be getting more and more solid. I don't think any of the proposed explanations for the sound quality differences hold water. There is definite cause to suspect two shooters. Here is a link to his latest video: https://x.com/chrismartenson/status/1816269036768092383
Update 8: Dr. Martenson has now added a very important "6th" video source and the picture keeps getting clearer. The architect analysis confirms my estimation of the height of the Crooks' building roof apex (15.92 feet) and the delta elevation between where the podium was located and the base of Crooks' building (about 4 feet). Assuming the 6 audio files are raw and unaltered, the data shows that the most likely scenario is that more than one hostile weapon was involved. My critique of Martenson's latest video is as follows:
1) For shots 1 and 8, while the mic orientation is consistent, the position difference may be significant. It is possible that for shot 1 the tree trunk may have been between Stewart and Crooks. You notice the leaves hanging down into the frame for shot 8, he appears to be to the right side of the tree trunk. For frame 1 the leaves from the left side of the tree trunk appear to be shown. This means there is a small possibility that the tree trunk could be right in-line with Crooks. This could theoretically account for some audio differences.
2) When comparing the amount of low-frequency sounds using the graphs, the wide spacing of shots 1, 2, and 3 can make it appear "more blue than orange". It seems better to squeeze shots 1-3 together to visually compare these. I performed this squeeze, and this is the result:
Focus on the area in the two light blue rectangles. The area Martenson annotates with the green line isn't as obviously different in this image as in the image he shows, however when you look at "center of mass" of these brighter yellow areas, Martenson is correct that the first three shots center around 600-650 Hz, while shots 4-8 center around 400 Hz. Also, the difference in the area of the white line (10-200 Hz) is clearly very different.
3) I am also very curious about the ricochet sound seen in the audio of shot 1. What accounts for the time duration between the initial sound and the ricochet spike on the graph? It would seem to be a "range" effect. If so, what two events would cause the initial sound and the ricochet spike? The "ricochet sound" is present in shots 1, 2, and 3, so I do not believe it is an actual ricochet.
Here is the link to Martenson's latest video: https://x.com/chrismartenson/status/1818076611289415685
Update 9: There is an interesting video taken by one of the people on the far side of Trump who was critically injured by gunfire and/or shrapnel https://www.foxnews.com/us/video-from-trump-assassination-attempt-victims-pov-shows-figure-moving-roof-moments-before-gunfire. Well, that Fox News link is no longer valid. Here is another source for it: https://vigilantnews.com/post/shocking-new-footage-shows-someone-crooks-running-on-the-roof-moments-before-trump-was-shot/. You can clearly see what is apparently Crooks running left-to-right across the roof shortly before the shots (running from the area of the taller building towards his eventual ending position). You can also really see the angles and trajectories from his view. What officials have said about Crooks not being visible to the SS snipers until just before the shots began is simply not true (assuming this video is legit). You can also note the difference in trajectories between Trump and Comperatore. Comperatore is the gentleman in the upper left of the bleachers with a dark baseball cap who was killed by one of the shots.
The acoustic data continues to be compelling, with at least 8 different recordings from different locations undergoing some analysis. There is absolutely no doubt that shots 1-3 sound very different from shots 5-8. This is particularly true for the audio sources located to the west of Crooks' building (a perspective from the right side of Crooks). However, there continue to be several potential explanations for these sound differences. I have these in descending order of likelihood (my judgment based on the acoustic data, and the fact that some of these possibilities have zero proof or supporting evidence at this point in time).
1) Two different weapons is the most logical explanation with quite a bit of supporting data. Different weapons can sound very different, particularly if not located in the same place, or if one is firing from inside a building where the high frequency noise will not propagate to the sides. These graphics illustrate such a scenario.
2) Crooks may have been very low for the first 3 shots, then when he saw he missed, he may have raised up to fire shots 4-8. This could possibly change the sound quality, but those side aspect microphones sound VERY different between the groups, so I have doubts about this explanation.
3) The two sources from the side were not pointing in exactly the same direction for the two groups of shots. Note however, that cell phones have omni-directional mics, so a 30-degree or so change in aspect isn't likely to make very much difference.
4) For the source from directly in front of that building, the angles are roughly the same, but there is a slight possibility there could be a tree trunk directly in the line between the microphone and the shooter for the first three shots. This might affect the sound quality for those shots.
5) And the newest possibility is based on an odd configuration of Crooks' rifle. There was a red dot sight mounted on top of the rifle and two flip-up iron sights mounted on the SIDE of his rifle (this is an almost unheard of configuration). In theory, this could allow Crooks to tilt his rifle over sideways so that the long 30-round magazine would not contact the roof and require him to elevate his position and be more exposed. He would be able to fire using iron sights while keeping his head a bit lower, though managing recoil with a sideways rifle would seem very challenging (though AR-15 recoil is much tamer than many rifles). The reason this might affect the sound is that it appears that he had some sort of flash suppressor on the end of his barrel. If that flash suppressor directs gases to the sides and not vertically, then the sound could be different if the shots are fired with the rifle vertical versus sideways. So, if shots 1-3 were shot sideways, and 4-8 were shot vertically, then the sound could be different. I am skeptical of this resulting in very different acoustics in the high/low frequencies. Someone needs to test such flash suppressors and bring that data to the table if this theory is to be pushed.
6) There could have been different ammo types for shots 1-3 versus 4-8. It is VERY unlikely the sound would be that different based on ammo alone. (Note: It is also odd that we have been given zero information about the type of shell casings found and what type of ammo may have been used. I don't know how easy it is to identify all the different places where bullets struck people, bleachers, and the ground, but that information could help answer trajectory questions. The general lack of information flow and briefings held by the protective teams and leadership is very, very troubling.)
Update 10: There is another video floating out there that I am quite certain is fake. It purports to show ANOTHER "bullet" captured in flight from the OTHER side of the venue. They claim they have a subsonic acoustic signature for this (a silenced weapon). Folks, the geometry doesn't work. Such a shot would have had to have been taken from within 60 feet of Trump. No way.
I snipped out a portion of the last frame containing the "bullet" to paste on top of the first frame containing the "bullet". I selected this region so that it could be easily aligned with the light pole in the lower left of the images. Trump's jacket is moving around a bit from frame to frame, but the light pole vertical and horizontal components provide a fixed reference for tying these two frames together.
The resulting angle has a rise of 77 pixels over a run of 603 pixels which calculates out to 7.28 degrees using the trigonometric TOA rule.
The "bullet" passes Trump at the ribcage area. Let's estimate that at 2/3 of his height, and Trump is about 6.1 feet tall.
Again, the platform Trump is standing on looks to have 5 steps, so it would be about 3-4 feet above the ground. Let's call it 3.5 feet.
So when it passes Trump it would be approximately 7.56 feet above the ground.
If we project that 7.28 degree angle out toward the crowd from there, we can see where it would strike the ground. That comes out to about 60 feet, again using the trigonometric TOA rule.
Update 11: The latest Martenson video update has audio analysis from a full-resolution higher-quality audio file from Source 4 which was over to Crooks' right. https://x.com/chrismartenson/status/1820989291524472877
The data still more strongly supports two different weapons firing toward the stage. The timing of the echoes produced by shots 1-3 at 0.08 seconds are very different from the echoes produced by shots 4 and 8 (at 0.17 seconds). The orientation of the microphone would not affect the timing of these echoes. Additionally, the frequencies are very different. Note the bright yellow of shots 1-3 is lower (deeper sounds) on the graph than for shots 4-8. There is also much more high frequency sound for shots 4-8 (the orange area between the bright yellow and the black region above). These visible artifacts in this graph are very clear to the ear when you listen to this audio.
If there were two shooters, where would the second one be located? The windows in Crooks' building (6) below him were apparently checked right after the shots and all appeared to be closed. Other options include: 1) Some sort of hole in building 6. The image below suggests a few places that an on-the-scene investigator might want to rule out. Martenson's video has an internal building diagram of this scenario.
2) On the roof of building 6 hidden at the far South end behind the parapet at the main building entrance. This is about 40 feet to the left of Crooks per Martenson's video.
3) The open windows in the building behind and to Crooks' right seem to be the most obvious possibility.
Martenson also notes the peculiar silence about the investigation and the manner in which the investigation has been conducted. Noteworthy points are:
- The crime scene was immediately dismantled so that the bleachers and stage can no longer be as accurately analyzed.
- We don't know the names of several key individuals (officer being lifted up to the roof, officers in the building behind Crooks, the SS officer inside building 6, the name and location of the officer who fired shot 9 at Crooks).
- We don't know any details about Crooks' rifle and the brass casings. What is the model of the rifle, what are all the attachments, had it clearly been fired, do the brass casings all match the rifle (firing pin indentations, ejector markings)?
- How did the SS know that "the shooter is down"? How did they know there was only one shooter and submit to Trump standing back up and being exposed again?
If the shots all came from Crooks' rifle, this video shows at least some evidence for some of the trajectories involved. https://youtu.be/-w2lVIJc000